Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb714…5319 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
other 24% $0
politics 20% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 4% −$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 47 -3.8% -13.0% 28% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage304d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $47 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $24 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $14 +$1 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 -13%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 11 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 22 $36 $0 -1%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $40 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $40 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $40 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $39 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $6 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $13 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $13 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $43 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $43 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $10 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $10 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 31¢ $21 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 31¢ $2 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $2 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $11 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $10 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 53¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.15 · official $39.15 (match) · 157 history records