Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B7
0xb715…8f7f
world · 72 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$27 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$74
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)47 / 72
History coverage9d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day59.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 25 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$46
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 55¢ 66¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+22%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 34¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 89¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 89¢ 89¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 30¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+82%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+178%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $41 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -64%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $1 +$1 +95%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +9%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -84%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +48%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -72%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $53 −$33 -63%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$11 +530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $8 −$5 -64%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +21%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$6 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% −$49
tech 10% +$4
politics 8% −$3
other 7% $0
crypto 6% +$20
finance 2% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 12m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 22m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 22m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $0 24m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $0 24m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $1 24m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -17.5% -25.4% 42% 12% -42.7%
≤30d 47 +24.5% +12.7% 47% 21% -26.7%
≤90d 47 +24.5% +12.7% 47% 21% -26.7%
all 47 +24.5% +12.7% 47% 21% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.7% 21% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here +1.9% 13% -33.7%
15% -8.0% 11% -40.1%
20% -17.0% 9% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.39 · official $73.80 (match) · 568 history records