Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B7 0xb718…67e4 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$96 (+12%) realized +$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$85
other 28% −$3
crypto 3% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +57.7% +42.7% 38% 33% +3.9%
≤30d 42 +57.7% +42.7% 38% 33% +3.9%
≤90d 42 +57.7% +42.7% 38% 33% +3.9%
all 42 +57.7% +42.7% 38% 33% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.7% 33% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here +29.0% 31% -6.0%
15% +16.6% 31% -15.1%
20% +5.1% 26% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +106% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)42 / 47
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 19¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$18 +360%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$16 +525%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$7 -23%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$19 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$1 -26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$2 +7%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 +$12 +228%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $99 +$109 +110%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 +$5 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$4 -81%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $50 −$2 -4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$2 +37%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$30 +145%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$2 -30%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $66 +$68 +103%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 +$20 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $45 −$12 -26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $12 +$5 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$6 -59%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $35 −$11 -30%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 −$6 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $24 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $19 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 7h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 5¢ $1 8h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $2 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 83¢ $44 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $4 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $5 9h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $10 10h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $17 12h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 28¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 7¢ $5 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $174 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $20 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $31 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.73 · official $49.73 (match) · 123 history records