Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb71e…641a sports 442 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,653 (-6%) realized −$7,948 · open +$295
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%189W / 249L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$2,137est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,379
7 days−$4,490
14 days−$6,465
30 days−$7,343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$8,828
other 1% −$124
crypto 1% +$29
politics 0% −$128
world 0% −$7
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -64.1% -67.5% 9% 9% -61.6%
≤30d 261 -5.3% -14.3% 44% 34% -18.7%
≤90d 438 -6.9% -15.8% 43% 28% -16.1%
all 438 -6.9% -15.8% 43% 28% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 28% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 19% -24.2%
15% -31.2% 14% -31.5%
20% -38.0% 10% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$91 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,478
Realized−$7,948
Unrealized+$295
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses189 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$2,137
Open positions4
Markets (closed)438 / 442
History coverage78d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season 9z Team 44¢ 100¢ $263 $595 +$332 (+126%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage M80 69¢ 68¢ $513 $499 −$14 (-3%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 54¢ 58¢ $355 $384 +$29 (+8%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $114 −$13 -11%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $114 −$84 -73%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $338 −$338 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 17 $470 −$468 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $319 −$319 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $328 −$242 -74%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $462 +$57 +12%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $301 −$301 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $531 −$531 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 14 $580 −$580 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $229 −$50 -22%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $79 −$66 -84%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $132 −$102 -77%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $263 −$86 -33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $317 −$257 -81%
ITF Los Angeles: Lily Taylor vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 12 $261 −$261 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $220 +$86 +39%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $440 −$257 -58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $336 +$107 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $118 −$83 -70%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $562 −$47 -8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 12 $163 −$47 -29%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $574 −$62 -11%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $420 +$25 +6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 +$2 +87%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $61 +$92 +150%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $561 −$46 -8%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $149 −$59 -40%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $560 −$45 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$45 +435%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $384 +$153 +40%
ITF Cuiaba: Josefina Estevez vs Sofia Da Cruz Mendonca Jun 11 $82 −$80 -97%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $317 −$139 -44%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $308 −$80 -26%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $47 +$48 +102%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $56 −$56 -100%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $311 +$52 +17%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $472 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 59¢ $243 10m
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 63¢ $237 26m
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 76¢ $276 36m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 45¢ $92 51m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 51¢ $13 53m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 51¢ $8 53m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 2¢ $10 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 6¢ $1 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 90¢ $51 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 97¢ $56 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 89¢ $50 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 83¢ $37 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 97¢ $495 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 91¢ $10 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 72¢ $49 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 72¢ $10 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 44¢ $225 1h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 15¢ $20 2h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 40¢ $204 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 62¢ $3 32h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $3 32h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $94 46h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 73¢ $38 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 29¢ $53 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 29¢ $19 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $192 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 30¢ $156 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $34 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,477.79 · official $1,533.22 · 2850 history records