Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb71e…fa19 world 43 markets active 14h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+3%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
sports 26% −$6
other 15% +$2
economics 7% $0
crypto 5% +$1
politics 4% +$29
weather 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.1% -7.6% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 42 +4.1% -5.8% 48% 5% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 5% -6.9%
10% -14.8% 2% -15.8%
15% -23.0% 2% -23.9%
20% -30.6% 2% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage474d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 24 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $2 $0 -19%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 21 $22 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $39 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 11 $21 $0 +2%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-06? Mar 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ajax vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Mar 05 $20 $0 -1%
Jets vs. Islanders Mar 05 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 3? Mar 05 $17 +$29 +173%
Will Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Mar 03 $20 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $26 −$1 -4%
Raptors vs. Magic Mar 03 $20 $0 +2%
Detroit Mercy vs. Northern Kentucky Mar 03 $25 −$6 -24%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? Mar 03 $17 $0 -2%
McNeese State vs. Stephen F. Austin Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 46°F or below on March 4? Mar 03 $19 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $40 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $26 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $13 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $42 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $42 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $38 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $40 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records