Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb720…d8ee other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 38L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$4
other 23% +$20
politics 6% +$1
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 20 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 20 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 0% -9.9%
all 67 +14.9% +3.9% 43% 1% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 1% -8.4%
10% -6.0% 1% -17.1%
15% -15.1% 1% -25.1%
20% -23.4% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage454d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $18 $0 -3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $182 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 −$2 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $46 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $45 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $8 $0 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $35 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $11 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 29 $1 $0 +7%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Fartcoin dip to $0.85 before June? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 26 $8 $0 -4%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'The Apothecary Diaries' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $2 +$19 +1076%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 9–16? May 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 13 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $47 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $41 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $46 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $48 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $48 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $21 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $21 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $10 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $26 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $35 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records