Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb720…8d6c crypto 1719 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$973 (+7%) realized +$973 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%881W / 833L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -11.0% -19.5% 52% 41% -38.2%
≤30d 495 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 53% -23.7%
≤90d 1380 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 49% -18.3%
all 1714 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 49% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 49% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 48% -25.8%
15% -28.6% 45% -33.0%
20% -35.6% 40% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$973
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses881 / 833
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1714 / 1719
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1714 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 12? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 11 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $1,142 −$1,142 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 12 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 13? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 13 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 12 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 12 Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -119%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 12? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 13 Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 11 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 12? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$283 -5277%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 13? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 11 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $19 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$10 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $46 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $44 −$10 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $35 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $32 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $32 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $57 −$9 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $19 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $36 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $32 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records