Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B7 0xb724…2cca other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$4,685 (+65%) realized +$4,686 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$1,802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$5,303
sports 11% −$631
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +150.0% +126.2% 100% 100% +126.2%
≤90d 1 +150.0% +126.2% 100% 100% +126.2%
all 9 +15.4% +4.4% 44% 44% +74.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 44% +74.4%
10% -5.6% 44% +57.7%
15% -14.7% 44% +42.4%
20% -23.1% 44% +28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +150% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,573 vs −$321 · ×4.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$1,802
Realized+$4,686
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage282d
Avg bet$599
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $395 $393 −$2 (-1%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? No 40¢ 100¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+150%)
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $592 $0 −$592 (-100%)
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Jannik Sinner? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
Netanyahu out by March 31? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $214 $0 −$214 (-100%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? No 36¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $8 +$12 +147%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 10 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $800 −$631 -79%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 23 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 07 $3,061 +$5,215 +170%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Jannik Sinner? Sep 07 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 07 $60 +$37 +61%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 07 $400 +$1,027 +257%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? Sep 06 $74 −$37 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $406 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $411 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,028 1h
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY No 40¢ $8 17d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $214 96d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 13¢ $169 96d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 20¢ $250 203d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 8¢ $250 217d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,276 279d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Jannik Sinner? BUY Yes 20¢ $23 280d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Jannik Sinner? BUY Yes 19¢ $200 280d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,000 280d
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $96 280d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,427 280d
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? BUY No 62¢ $60 280d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 28¢ $400 281d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? BUY No 36¢ $37 281d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 64¢ $37 281d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? BUY Yes 65¢ $37 281d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 16¢ $800 281d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? BUY Yes 34¢ $2,061 282d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,801.77 · official $1,801.77 (match) · 21 history records