Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B7 0xb726…4d2b sports 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,459 (-5%) realized −$14,459 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%138W / 175L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$948per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$607est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$883
7 days−$2,989
14 days−$2,989
30 days−$3,135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$9,708
other 17% −$5,365
crypto 6% −$919
world 1% −$499
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 48% -15.0%
≤30d 57 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 49% -15.2%
≤90d 57 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 49% -15.2%
all 313 -5.7% -14.7% 44% 43% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 43% -14.4%
10% -22.9% 42% -22.6%
15% -30.3% 39% -30.1%
20% -37.2% 35% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,283) neutral
Persistence
early +37% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$885 vs −$792 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses138 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$607
Open positions0
Markets (closed)313 / 313
History coverage196d
Avg bet$948
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 313 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,516 −$1,500 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1,386 +$2,287 +165%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $507 +$417 +82%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $509 −$500 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $381 −$375 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,718 −$1,698 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $387 +$375 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,386 +$110 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $505 +$219 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $698 −$307 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,010 +$526 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $674 −$671 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $609 −$600 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,014 +$838 +83%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $371 +$67 +18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $211 −$207 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $611 +$1,010 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,565 +$738 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,423 −$1,174 -82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $709 −$702 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,394 +$737 +53%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $153 +$78 +51%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$28 +28%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $642 +$394 +61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $934 +$772 +83%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $204 +$504 +247%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $448 −$443 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $840 −$374 -44%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $556 +$285 +51%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $707 +$358 +51%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $181 −$180 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,021 −$839 -82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,011 +$601 +59%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $1,013 −$995 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $179 −$40 -22%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $307 −$300 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $800 +$562 +70%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $476 +$325 +68%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $710 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $911 −$900 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $871 −$851 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,560 +$530 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1,372 +$1,063 +78%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1,513 +$629 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,516 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,837 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,837 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,386 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 94¢ $31 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 94¢ $94 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 94¢ $20 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 94¢ $34 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 94¢ $20 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 94¢ $188 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 94¢ $56 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 94¢ $4 13h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 41¢ $509 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $507 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $381 16h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $1,718 25h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $0 35h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $762 35h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 50¢ $387 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $1,245 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 40¢ $71 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 64¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $505 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 24¢ $251 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $506 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $367 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $102 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1552 history records