Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb72b…989a sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$109,133 (+28%) realized +$108,770 · open +$363
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 29L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$5,901per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$868est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,487
7 days+$416
14 days−$2,537
30 days−$3,537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$100,163
other 20% +$7,441
sports 16% −$9,502
world 1% −$1,113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.5% -7.3% 52% 50% -8.6%
≤30d 63 +2.3% -7.4% 54% 46% -11.6%
≤90d 63 +2.3% -7.4% 54% 46% -11.6%
all 65 +3.6% -6.3% 55% 48% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 48% +13.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 45% +2.4%
15% -23.5% 38% -7.5%
20% -31.0% 26% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$2,486) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,603 vs −$1,141 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$1,283
Realized+$108,770
Unrealized+$363
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$868
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage554d
Avg bet$5,901
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 72¢ $920 $1,283 +$363 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2,427 +$1,446 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,008 +$364 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7,887 −$5,496 -70%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $8,989 −$7,883 -88%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $497 −$239 -48%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,123 −$606 -54%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $446 −$438 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,021 −$78 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $810 +$593 +73%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $245 −$240 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $810 −$689 -85%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,011 −$690 -68%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $849 +$484 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $479 +$864 +180%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $5,543 +$98 +2%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $478 −$349 -73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $495 +$226 +46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $377 −$370 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $692 −$321 -46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,018 +$1,482 +146%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,985 +$1,453 +73%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $2,509 +$727 +29%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $959 +$438 +46%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $492 −$484 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,012 −$670 -66%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $306 −$200 -65%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $508 +$628 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $516 +$281 +55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $82 −$80 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $1,514 −$1,500 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7,065 +$3,080 +44%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,646 +$3,695 +140%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,019 −$659 -33%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$214 +106%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $406 +$349 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $605 +$206 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,015 −$544 -54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5,967 +$3,549 +60%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,504 −$2,486 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $507 −$294 -58%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $8,694 +$103 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,168 +$31 +0%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 −$320 -63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8,756 +$209 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,006 +$229 +23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $506 +$327 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $2,427 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,636 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $756 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 73¢ $3,831 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands $452 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands $654 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 29¢ $258 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 14¢ $517 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 59¢ $2,986 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 60¢ $3,036 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 59¢ $3 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 59¢ $1,851 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 59¢ $1,112 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 54¢ $497 17h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $446 17h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 29¢ $378 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $2,029 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $2,976 17h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 28¢ $943 17h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 29¢ $1,021 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $4,058 22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 29¢ $746 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,028 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $1,008 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $245 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $121 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $810 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $810 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 21¢ $320 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $1,015 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,282.70 · official $1,247.31 · 362 history records