Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb72c…ded3 other 55 markets active 1d ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$13
politics 21% −$13
other 7% −$9
culture 1% $0
sports 1% +$19
crypto 1% $0
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.7% -24.6% 17% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 19 -1.3% -10.7% 16% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 42 +1.3% -8.4% 21% 12% -9.1%
all 54 +0.9% -8.7% 20% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 9% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 9% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 9% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage603d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $96 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $93 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $48 +$2 +3%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 11 $11 +$9 +89%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $8 +$5 +59%
Blue Jackets vs. Islanders Apr 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $13,518 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 26h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $3 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $60 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 11d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $11 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 17d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 17d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 21d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.67 · official $55.67 (match) · 292 history records