Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb72d…f11e other 377 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$556 (+7%) realized +$483 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%107W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$968now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$252
7 days+$278
14 days−$168
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$41
crypto 28% −$140
sports 22% +$652
world 1% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +74.3% +57.7% 29% 26% +9.4%
≤30d 123 +24.7% +12.8% 20% 20% -5.5%
≤90d 368 +1.8% -7.9% 29% 27% -5.4%
all 368 +1.8% -7.9% 29% 27% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 27% -5.4%
10% -16.7% 26% -14.4%
15% -24.8% 24% -22.7%
20% -32.2% 21% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$15 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$968
Realized+$483
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses107 / 261
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions9
Markets (closed)368 / 377
History coverage76d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $150 $160 +$10 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $90 $141 +$51 (+57%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $125 $139 +$14 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $125 $133 +$8 (+7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$34 +118%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$115 +1115%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$67 +165%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $82 −$71 -86%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $18 +$206 +1115%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$44 +43%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$156 +1519%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $69 +$77 +112%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$6 -6%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$81 +158%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $9 +$91 +980%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bolivia 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $10 +$116 +1125%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 1 Slovenia? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Denmark 1 - 2 Ukraine? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Liechtenstein 2 - 3 Cyprus? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Venezuela 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 06 $14 −$14 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $183 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $41 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 99¢ $0 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 5¢ $11 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 10h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 11h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 12h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $82 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $188 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $225 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 24h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $146 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $104 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 38h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $967.80 · official $967.80 (match) · 846 history records