Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B7 0xb730…e9c2 sports 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%109W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days+$137
14 days+$249
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$102
other 16% +$70
crypto 5% −$129
tech 1% +$24
culture 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -13.6% -21.8% 43% 43% +2.7%
≤30d 110 +4.7% -5.3% 63% 54% -6.0%
≤90d 195 -0.7% -10.1% 56% 47% -8.9%
all 195 -0.7% -10.1% 56% 47% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 47% -8.9%
10% -18.7% 41% -17.6%
15% -26.6% 34% -25.6%
20% -33.8% 27% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses109 / 86
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions6
Markets (closed)195 / 201
History coverage75d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 61¢ 96¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+58%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 +$10 +32%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 −$37 -73%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$13 -85%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $101 +$89 +88%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $46 +$168 +365%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$6 +27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$36 +90%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$24 +237%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$11 +70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$10 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 17¢ $13 6h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 16¢ $1 6h
Algeria leading at halftime? SELL Yes $1 7h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $30 8h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $51 8h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 8h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 8h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 8h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 52¢ $101 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $214 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 39h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 78¢ $10 40h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $10 40h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes $3 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $5 41h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $125 41h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $101 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.64 · official $297.69 (match) · 410 history records