Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb730…f5f1 sports 66 markets active 23h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-8%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$15
14 days−$6
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$15
other 29% −$21
politics 2% −$10
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.9% -4.2% 45% 45% -20.8%
≤30d 22 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 36% -12.9%
≤90d 66 -12.6% -21.0% 39% 38% -18.0%
all 66 -12.6% -21.0% 39% 38% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 38% -18.0%
10% -28.5% 35% -25.9%
15% -35.4% 35% -33.0%
20% -41.8% 29% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 40
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage132d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$5 -24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$20 +197%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -19%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $44 +$32 +72%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 29 $56 −$14 -26%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $10 +$5 +49%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) May 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 $0 -5%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $1 +$1 +85%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $1 $0 +41%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 -6%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 07 $5 −$5 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 06 $10 +$9 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 05 $1 +$1 +52%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $5 +$5 +90%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 May 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $1 +$1 +64%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score May 04 $1 −$1 -51%
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5 May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 May 04 $3 +$3 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 13¢ $1 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 68¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 67¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 4d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? SELL No $4 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY No $5 12d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 56¢ $10 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 18d
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 19d
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 19d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 21d
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 56¢ $2 24d
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $5 24d
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) BUY Cavaliers 52¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records