Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb742…126a sports 366 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%207W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% +$14
sports 44% −$61
other 2% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 54 +17.8% +6.6% 98% 19% -7.4%
all 364 +5.5% -4.5% 57% 45% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 45% -10.1%
10% -13.6% 44% -18.7%
15% -22.0% 44% -26.5%
20% -29.6% 44% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses207 / 157
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)364 / 366
History coverage216d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May May 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 13? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on May 12? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 12? May 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 7? May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 7? May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on May 7? May 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1? May 01 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 23? May 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 76°F or higher on April 23? Apr 23 $47 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on April 22? Apr 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 22? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 23? Apr 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 19? Apr 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on April 18? Apr 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 18? Apr 18 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ap Apr 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April Apr 17 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 12? Apr 12 $0 $0 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5 Apr 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on April 11? Apr 12 $91 +$1 +1%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5 Apr 09 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 5? Apr 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 70°F or higher on April 9? Apr 08 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on April 9? Apr 08 $20 $0 +2%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on Apr Apr 05 $36 +$5 +13%
Bulls vs. Knicks Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 30? Apr 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 30? Apr 04 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 27 Mar 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 27? Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 27? Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5 Mar 27 $1 +$1 +59%
Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 244.5 Mar 27 $1 +$1 +92%
Magic vs. Heat: O/U 236.5 Mar 27 $1 +$1 +96%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 27 $1 +$1 +100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mar 27 $1 +$1 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 20h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $21 27h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $64 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May SELL Yes 100¢ $20 36d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May BUY Yes 99¢ $20 36d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 38d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 39d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 39d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 39d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 39d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 39d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 42d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 43d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on May 7? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 44d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 44d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 44d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 44d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 44d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 44d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 44d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 50d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 50d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 50d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.32 · official $97.32 (match) · 610 history records