Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B7 0xb748…dbdd sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$834 (-3%) realized −$1,410 · open +$576
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,291per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$533est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$9,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,553
7 days−$317
14 days−$317
30 days−$1,970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$577
other 15% −$1,134
politics 7% −$481
finance 3% +$236
tech 0% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -35.6% -41.8% 30% 30% -12.0%
≤30d 11 -35.2% -41.4% 27% 27% -20.1%
≤90d 18 -24.6% -31.7% 44% 39% -15.1%
all 18 -24.6% -31.7% 44% 39% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 39% -15.1%
10% -38.3% 33% -23.3%
15% -44.2% 28% -30.7%
20% -49.7% 17% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,436) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$989 vs −$926 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$9,686
Realized−$1,410
Unrealized+$576
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$533
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage56d
Avg bet$1,291
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 76¢ $3,710 $5,285 +$1,575 (+42%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $3,400 $2,250 −$1,150 (-34%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 33¢ 32¢ $990 $975 −$15 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $500 $848 +$348 (+70%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $317 −$183 (-37%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $54 −$53 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,518 −$1,500 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $3,565 +$5,645 +158%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $509 +$711 +140%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $154 −$150 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $4,047 −$4,000 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $505 +$230 +46%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5,381 −$1,653 -31%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $1,436 +$837 +58%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 23 $101 +$38 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $1,008 +$236 +23%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $502 +$43 +9%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $1,015 +$176 +17%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $302 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $1,010 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3,762 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $3,467 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $54 29h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,518 29h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 38¢ $3,565 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $509 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $4,047 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 35¢ $102 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,012 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $505 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $3,728 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $192 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $450 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $58 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $314 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $70 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $349 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,686.10 · official $9,686.10 (match) · 108 history records