Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B7 0xb749…a06f other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$106 (+0%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate26%21W / 60L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$13
politics 15% −$8
other 15% +$32
sports 3% +$94
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +6.0% -4.1% 17% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 63 +8.9% -1.5% 24% 17% -8.9%
all 81 +10.9% +0.4% 26% 19% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 19% -9.1%
10% -9.2% 17% -17.8%
15% -18.0% 17% -25.7%
20% -26.0% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses21 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage606d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 +$0 (+0%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 46¢ 46¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $7 +$7 +109%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $89 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $208 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $183 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $178 −$1 -1%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $190 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $172 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $170 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $183 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $178 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $185 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $185 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $182 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $527 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $189 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $186 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $182 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $12 +$7 +55%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $17 +$11 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $11 3h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 25h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $116 36h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 43h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 44h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $7 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $29 14d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 18d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 19d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $41 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.59 · official $127.59 (match) · 308 history records