Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:07:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb74b…d765 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,435 (-21%) realized −$4,479 · open +$44
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%18W / 44L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$4,069
other 4% −$330
world 2% +$59
crypto 1% −$39
politics 1% −$23
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -67.5% -70.6% 0% 0% -77.3%
all 62 -24.2% -31.4% 29% 29% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 29% -29.1%
10% -38.0% 27% -35.9%
15% -44.0% 26% -42.1%
20% -49.5% 24% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$550) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$442 vs −$283 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized−$4,479
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses18 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage307d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 44¢ $226 $229 +$3 (+1%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 27¢ 35¢ $145 $187 +$42 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $48 −$46 -96%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Magic vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5 Mar 07 $460 −$460 -100%
Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Feb 21 $666 +$666 +100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-02-20? Feb 20 $243 −$243 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Elche CF end in a draw? Feb 20 $333 −$333 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 18 $550 −$550 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Feb 12 $620 +$396 +64%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 07 $330 −$330 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5 Feb 02 $555 −$555 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Feb 01 $465 −$465 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Jan 30 $1,330 −$1,330 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Jan 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Magic vs. Heat Jan 29 $700 +$1,007 +144%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 27 $854 +$671 +79%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5 Jan 26 $595 +$700 +118%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 223.5 Jan 17 $562 −$562 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? Jan 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Jan 09 $620 −$620 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Jan 08 $690 −$690 -100%
Wizards vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5 Jan 08 $1,000 +$1,083 +108%
Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5 Jan 07 $213 −$213 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 07 $1,020 +$502 +49%
76ers vs. Knicks Jan 03 $690 −$690 -100%
Lightning vs. Sharks Jan 03 $338 −$338 -100%
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5 Jan 02 $452 −$452 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-11.5) Jan 01 $560 −$560 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Jan 01 $19 +$87 +456%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $205 +$28 +14%
Bulls vs. Hawks Dec 21 $560 −$560 -100%
Islanders vs. Sabres Dec 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Dec 14 $361 +$441 +122%
Blackhawks vs. Blues Dec 13 $550 +$550 +100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Dec 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 06 $280 −$280 -100%
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Dec 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-3.5) Dec 05 $420 +$474 +113%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? Dec 01 $100 +$355 +354%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Nov 30 $448 −$448 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Nov 30 $300 +$450 +150%
Avalanche vs. Predators Nov 22 $223 −$223 -100%
Bruins vs. Ducks Nov 19 $367 −$367 -100%
Celtics vs. Nets Nov 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Kraken vs. Red Wings Nov 18 $380 −$380 -100%
Oilers vs. Sabres Nov 18 $75 +$108 +144%
Islanders vs. Avalanche Nov 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $230 1h
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No $48 40d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $49 40d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 27¢ $145 57d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 65d
Magic vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5 BUY Over 47¢ $460 104d
Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 BUY Under 50¢ $666 119d
Will Elche CF win on 2026-02-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $243 120d
Will Athletic Club vs. Elche CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $333 120d
Rockets vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 42¢ $550 121d
Hawks vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 61¢ $620 128d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes $6 130d
Rockets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 55¢ $330 133d
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5 BUY Under 51¢ $555 137d
Bulls vs. Heat BUY Bulls 40¢ $465 139d
Nets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 58¢ $1,330 140d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? BUY Yes $7 142d
Magic vs. Heat BUY Magic 41¢ $700 142d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 56¢ $854 145d
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5 BUY Under 46¢ $595 146d
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-01-22? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 148d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $50 149d
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 223.5 BUY Under 48¢ $562 153d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes $5 160d
Hawks vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 49¢ $620 161d
Sabres vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 47¢ $690 163d
Wizards vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,000 163d
Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5 BUY Over 48¢ $213 163d
Cavaliers vs. Pacers BUY Cavaliers 67¢ $1,020 164d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 58¢ $690 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.67 · official $415.67 (match) · 86 history records