Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B7 0xb74f…2eb3 sports 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$347 (+13%) realized +$310 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%49W / 36L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$222
14 days+$222
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$193
other 5% +$26
world 5% +$112
crypto 2% +$11
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +14.5% +3.6% 56% 56% +0.1%
≤30d 66 +14.5% +3.6% 56% 56% -1.9%
≤90d 73 +14.6% +3.7% 55% 55% -2.4%
all 85 +27.5% +15.3% 58% 56% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.3% 56% +2.0%
10% +4.3% 55% -7.8%
15% -5.8% 49% -16.7%
20% -15.0% 42% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$29 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$310
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses49 / 36
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions7
Markets (closed)85 / 92
History coverage161d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 71¢ $82 $94 +$12 (+15%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 76¢ $51 $68 +$17 (+32%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 77¢ 98¢ $44 $57 +$12 (+28%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 40¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 22¢ 24¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+7%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 22¢ 21¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 19¢ 14¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$16 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$32 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 +$25 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$29 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$31 +61%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$134 +261%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $18 +$35 +196%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $23 +$36 +157%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 +$20 +39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$28 +56%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 +$51 +100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 +$76 +248%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $26 +$88 +342%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$15 +49%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$28 +138%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $31 +$20 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $20 +$32 +157%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$35 +113%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$46 +151%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $9 +$15 +171%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$12 +61%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 +$9 +35%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$32 +157%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $21 +$17 +81%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$6 +28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $45 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $33 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $23 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $24 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $52 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $49 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 28¢ $49 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $50 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $50 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $50 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $51 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $45 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $48 25h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 25h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $50 25h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 31h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 31h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $34 42h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $23 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.24 · official $333.24 (match) · 184 history records