Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B7 0xb753…0c39 crypto 1510 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$415 (+2%) realized +$415 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate91%1374W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$167
weather 19% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.2% -12.4% 95% 2% -11.3%
≤30d 156 -0.6% -10.1% 96% 8% -10.2%
≤90d 1335 -1.1% -10.5% 92% 4% -10.4%
all 1505 -1.3% -10.7% 91% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -10.5%
10% -19.2% 2% -19.0%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$415
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1374 / 131
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1505 / 1510
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 11 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 96°F or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on Jun Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 90°F or higher on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 23h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 68¢ $3 27h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $5 27h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 66¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 91¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $5 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.56 · official $29.86 · 3500 history records