Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B7 0xb755…dfcc other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$96 (+16%) realized +$88 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$138
sports 9% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +35.3% +22.5% 67% 67% +13.8%
≤30d 6 +35.3% +22.5% 67% 67% +13.8%
≤90d 6 +35.3% +22.5% 67% 67% +13.8%
all 6 +35.3% +22.5% 67% 67% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.5% 67% +13.8%
10% +10.7% 50% +3.0%
15% +0.0% 33% -7.0%
20% -9.8% 17% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$2 · ×15.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.6 per $1 lost it wins $31.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Over 61¢ 70¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $140 +$17 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$68 +134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 32m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $97 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $140 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $99 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.79 · official $57.79 (match) · 13 history records