Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb758…4699 crypto 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,663 (-10%) realized −$3,684 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%181W / 171L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$299
7 days−$426
14 days−$2,639
30 days−$4,512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$2,972
sports 19% −$1,362
other 4% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -6.8% -15.7% 52% 43% -14.0%
≤30d 352 -12.9% -21.2% 51% 41% -20.8%
≤90d 352 -12.9% -21.2% 51% 41% -20.8%
all 352 -12.9% -21.2% 51% 41% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 41% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 36% -28.4%
15% -35.6% 30% -35.3%
20% -41.9% 22% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$67 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$693
Realized−$3,684
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses181 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions2
Markets (closed)352 / 354
History coverage25d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 82¢ 86¢ $653 $693 +$40 (+6%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 68¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,433 −$157 -11%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $350 −$74 -21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $421 +$212 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $120 +$101 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $88 −$82 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$29 -57%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $140 −$139 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $116 −$44 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $73 −$71 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $142 −$7 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $81 +$201 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$51 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$92 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$40 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$26 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $121 −$119 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$58 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$116 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $108 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $88 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $65 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $156 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$59 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$48 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$22 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +89%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $114 −$64 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$7 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 80¢ $145 0m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $356 3m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 91¢ $188 5m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 82¢ $682 10m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 86¢ $682 12m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $19 13m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 4¢ $16 15m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 63¢ $202 19m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 63¢ $53 19m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 63¢ $2 19m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 37¢ $260 19m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $335 21m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $40 22m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $3 24m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $270 24m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $1 24m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $4 24m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $1 25m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $4 25m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $4 25m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $1 25m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $0 25m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 90¢ $4 25m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 73¢ $860 31m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 12¢ $59 36m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 42¢ $920 36m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 14¢ $35 37m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $523 42m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $575 44m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $633 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $692.73 · official $692.73 (match) · 962 history records