Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb75c…975c sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,775 (-32%) realized −$2,775 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,970
7 days−$3,260
14 days−$3,921
30 days−$3,051
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$2,453
other 32% −$598
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -68.1% -71.1% 11% 11% -86.2%
≤30d 19 -31.7% -38.2% 32% 32% -41.3%
≤90d 19 -31.7% -38.2% 32% 32% -41.3%
all 19 -31.7% -38.2% 32% 32% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 32% -41.3%
10% -44.2% 26% -46.9%
15% -49.5% 26% -52.1%
20% -54.5% 21% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$418 vs −$428 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,775
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage22d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,021 −$2,000 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $275 −$270 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $439 −$436 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$382 +187%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $199 −$195 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $272 −$272 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $773 −$766 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $614 −$600 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,237 +$761 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $64 +$136 +214%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $742 +$362 +49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $477 +$789 +165%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $398 +$81 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 5h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $1,010 8h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $1,010 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 27h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 27h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 27h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 27h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 27h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $54 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records