Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B7 0xb760…ccd7 other 460 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 254d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$39,078 (+9%) realized +$34,131 · open +$4,947
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate60%258W / 173L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$929per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$13,640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days+$3,885
14 days+$4,331
30 days+$4,331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% +$7,716
other 28% +$13,682
world 26% +$10,055
economics 8% +$230
tech 3% +$4,760
finance 3% +$3,573
crypto 1% +$577
sports 0% +$51
weather 0% −$14
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +22.0% +10.4% 59% 24% +9.1%
≤30d 18 +24.8% +12.9% 61% 28% +10.6%
≤90d 114 +15.4% +4.4% 54% 34% +6.7%
all 431 +17.8% +6.6% 60% 37% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 37% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -3.6% 28% -11.0%
15% -12.9% 22% -19.6%
20% -21.5% 18% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$82 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$13,640
Realized+$34,131
Unrealized+$4,947
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses258 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions29
Markets (closed)431 / 460
History coverage254d ⚠
Avg bet$929
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 24¢ 50¢ $3,280 $6,901 +$3,621 (+110%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 3¢ 16¢ $361 $2,158 +$1,797 (+498%)
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,284 $1,274 −$10 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $1,284 $1,184 −$99 (-8%)
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 94¢ 99¢ $623 $656 +$33 (+5%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $426 $463 +$37 (+9%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $389 $382 −$7 (-2%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $289 $342 +$53 (+18%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? No 24¢ 34¢ $56 $78 +$22 (+39%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? No 63¢ 52¢ $68 $57 −$12 (-17%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $4 $34 +$30 (+761%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? No 52¢ 24¢ $72 $33 −$39 (-54%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $31 $26 −$5 (-16%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $15 −$8 (-34%)
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $49 $7 −$43 (-87%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $196 $6 −$190 (-97%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $21 $4 −$17 (-81%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $143 $3 −$139 (-98%)
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+189%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 35¢ 10¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? Yes 55¢ 2¢ $55 $2 −$53 (-96%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 14¢ 2¢ $13 $2 −$11 (-85%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Jun 24 $510 +$159 +31%
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? Jun 24 $483 −$3 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 24 $370 −$44 -12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 24 $237 −$172 -73%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 23 $2,309 +$75 +3%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10,444 +$920 +9%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $296 +$204 +69%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $190 −$112 -59%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $211 +$9 +4%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $1,821 +$1,904 +105%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $259 +$1,376 +531%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1,025 −$469 -46%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 19 $357 +$37 +10%
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $243 +$2 +1%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $616 +$446 +72%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 22 $5,933 +$2,037 +34%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? May 14 $2,023 +$1,009 +50%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $398 −$383 -96%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 31? May 14 $186 −$186 -100%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 13 $59 +$92 +157%
Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30? May 13 $19 +$1 +8%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? May 13 $13 +$7 +55%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? May 13 $142 +$97 +68%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 5,500 and May 13 $79 +$2 +2%
ChatGPT Outage by April 24? May 13 $67 +$24 +36%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? May 13 $207 +$88 +42%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 6,000 and May 13 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Ye be dropped as Wireless Headliner? May 13 $126 +$24 +19%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31 May 13 $48 +$136 +285%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by March 31, 2026? May 13 $292 +$18 +6%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? May 13 $7 +$1 +14%
ChatGPT Outage by April 17? May 13 $61 −$49 -80%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of March May 13 $7 +$13 +189%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026? May 13 $18 +$1 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 13 $784 +$792 +101%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1? May 13 $2,352 +$1,173 +50%
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April? May 13 $951 +$49 +5%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April? May 13 $548 +$465 +85%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1? May 13 $7,254 +$426 +6%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April? May 13 $579 +$877 +152%
ChatGPT Outage by April 10? May 13 $449 +$2,205 +491%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? May 13 $5,698 +$507 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? May 13 $19,800 +$200 +1%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? May 13 $427 +$83 +19%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026? May 13 $36 +$85 +233%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $596 −$596 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 21? Apr 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $550 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $550 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 53¢ $65 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 53¢ $465 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $168 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $99 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL Yes 90¢ $502 18h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL Yes 90¢ $167 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $449 23h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 24h
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? SELL Yes 90¢ $458 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $4,000 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $80 27h
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 54¢ $7 27h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 54¢ $104 28h
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,640.12 · official $13,639.99 (match) · 3500 history records