Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb763…81c6 other 64 markets active 3d ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 37L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
other 26% +$1
politics 15% +$2
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 23 +2.6% -7.2% 39% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 4% -9.6%
all 64 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 5% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage431d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $11 −$1 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $86 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $59 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $22 −$2 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $28 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $45 +$2 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Haas be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 27 $16 $0 -3%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108000 and $110000 on May 16? May 15 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $21 $0 -1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $1 $0 -22%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April? May 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 10 $1 $0 -18%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $26 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $31 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $31 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $31 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 9d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 9d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 10d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 10d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 10d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 10d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 10d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 12d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 12d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records