Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb766…1d83 other 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$659 (+0%) realized −$1,350 · open +$2,009
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%181W / 190L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,132per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$41,404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$295
7 days−$281
14 days+$118
30 days+$6,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$13,224
world 30% +$8,736
politics 14% +$1,846
sports 4% +$1,218
tech 1% −$119
culture 1% +$218
finance 1% +$340
economics 0% +$128
crypto 0% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -44.9% -50.2% 33% 24% -10.3%
≤30d 67 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 39% +1.0%
≤90d 124 -4.2% -13.3% 44% 38% -7.7%
all 371 -1.6% -10.9% 49% 32% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 32% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 20% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 16% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 12% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$858) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$249 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$41,404
Realized−$1,350
Unrealized+$2,009
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses181 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions38
Markets (closed)371 / 408
History coverage236d
Avg bet$1,132
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $5,645 $6,739 +$1,094 (+19%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 86¢ $4,371 $5,373 +$1,002 (+23%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 40¢ 60¢ $2,716 $4,083 +$1,368 (+50%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 64¢ 84¢ $2,581 $3,427 +$846 (+33%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $3,157 $3,347 +$190 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $2,690 $3,276 +$586 (+22%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $1,931 $1,901 −$30 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2,181 $1,824 −$357 (-16%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $3,340 $1,095 −$2,245 (-67%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 90¢ $934 $1,080 +$147 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1,247 $993 −$253 (-20%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 96¢ $838 $892 +$53 (+6%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 47¢ 84¢ $494 $888 +$394 (+80%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 91¢ 99¢ $721 $790 +$70 (+10%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 82¢ 97¢ $545 $645 +$99 (+18%)
Will Scotland finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 78¢ 90¢ $410 $471 +$62 (+15%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 83¢ $405 $415 +$10 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $414 $412 −$2 (-0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $368 $368 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $368 $366 −$2 (-1%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $355 $353 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 65¢ $350 $325 −$25 (-7%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $313 $318 +$5 (+1%)
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $255 $255 +$0 (+0%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 82¢ 90¢ $223 $246 +$23 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 −$65 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $434 +$189 +44%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $81 −$80 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $142 +$88 +62%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $855 +$44 +5%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 −$10 -10%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $231 +$19 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $423 +$137 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $224 −$222 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $245 −$240 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $154 −$82 -53%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $202 −$115 -57%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $290 −$61 -21%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,193 +$433 +36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $917 −$707 -77%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $151 +$21 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $572 −$565 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $252 −$4 -2%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $443 −$23 -5%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $38 +$12 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$111 -54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 −$15 -14%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $734 +$504 +69%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $858 +$392 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $674 −$657 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $411 +$61 +15%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $18,483 +$1,516 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,653 +$145 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $74 −$43 -58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $446 +$380 +85%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $31 +$46 +152%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$72 +71%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 +$2 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $301 −$16 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 100¢ $255 41m
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 86¢ $1,940 56m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $66 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $79 1h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 30¢ $34 4h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $84 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $81 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $81 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $252 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $182 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $142 18h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 18h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $3,164 20h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $5,404 20h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $899 23h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 70¢ $358 26h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $374 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 27h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 50¢ $91 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $101 28h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $250 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $202 33h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 81¢ $407 44h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $339 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $423 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $9 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,404.26 · official $41,404.34 (match) · 2793 history records