Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb769…2259 world 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$16
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$18
sports 19% −$11
politics 17% +$3
other 12% −$6
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.9% -12.1% 11% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 28 -2.6% -11.9% 11% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 75 -1.0% -10.4% 32% 0% -10.1%
all 93 -6.8% -15.7% 34% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 2% -10.4%
10% -23.8% 2% -19.0%
15% -31.1% 2% -26.8%
20% -37.9% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 61
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage525d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $45 −$5 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $12 −$1 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $94 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $13 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $133 −$2 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $70 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $226 −$4 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $70 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $66 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $71 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $1 $0 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $14 −$3 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $50 −$4 -7%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $1 $0 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $95 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $164 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $89 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $19 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $44 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $53 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $7 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $20 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $26 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $26 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $11 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $29 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $30 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $11 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $12 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $24 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $27 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.69 · official $27.50 (match) · 398 history records