Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb76a…716d other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 1262d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,634 (-59%) realized −$7,613 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%19W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days−$281
14 days−$281
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 42% −$4,947
economics 21% −$880
politics 15% −$1,156
other 13% +$109
sports 5% −$102
tech 2% −$160
crypto 1% −$175
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -69.0% -71.9% 0% 0% -58.7%
≤30d 3 -69.0% -71.9% 0% 0% -58.7%
≤90d 3 -69.0% -71.9% 0% 0% -58.7%
all 75 -21.2% -28.7% 25% 21% -62.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 21% -62.4%
10% -35.5% 21% -66.0%
15% -41.8% 21% -69.3%
20% -47.5% 21% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$169 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1262d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized−$7,613
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 56
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage1262d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 73¢ 77¢ $197 $208 +$11 (+5%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $179 $147 −$32 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $254 −$17 -7%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $64 −$63 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 Dec 20 $2,303 −$2,303 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Dec 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Dec 16 $1,227 −$1,227 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m Dec 15 $689 −$689 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 08 $96 +$6 +6%
VOOI FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Dec 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 143m and 157m? Dec 01 $200 −$198 -99%
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m? Dec 01 $279 −$275 -98%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Decembe Dec 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during Octobe Nov 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference? Nov 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press Nov 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown in 2025? Nov 30 $250 −$250 -100%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 30 $128 −$76 -59%
Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2? Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Nov 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5 Nov 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 30 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 30 $100 −$100 -100%
VOOI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 29 $10 −$10 -100%
VOOI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Nov 29 $10 −$10 -100%
VOOI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 29 $10 −$10 -100%
VOOI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Nov 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 27 $208 +$130 +62%
VOOI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Nov 27 $100 −$100 -100%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $114 +$247 +216%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $50 +$96 +191%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $50 +$222 +444%
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 21 $412 −$412 -100%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 21 $100 +$85 +85%
Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference? Oct 30 $25 +$13 +54%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference? Oct 30 $25 +$20 +79%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $141 +$6 +4%
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 28 $17 −$9 -51%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Oct 18 $101 −$34 -34%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000? Oct 09 $200 +$245 +122%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 09 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $100 +$94 +94%
Will Donald Trump say "Reagan" during his North Carolina speech? Sep 25 $25 +$203 +809%
Will Donald Trump say "McDonald's" during his North Carolina speech? Sep 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 2 or more times during his North Carolin Sep 25 $25 +$40 +163%
Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Unio Sep 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "golf" during his Uniondale rally? Sep 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Uniondale rally Sep 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Taylor Swift" during his Uniondale rally? Sep 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 73¢ $199 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 48¢ $236 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $145 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $254 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $64 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $203 4h
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 45¢ $48 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 45¢ $15 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 45¢ $19 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 45¢ $3 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 45¢ $1 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 45¢ $4 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 45¢ $3 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 45¢ $4 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 45¢ $1,800 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m BUY Yes 2¢ $88 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 45¢ $11 187d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 52¢ $93 189d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 52¢ $252 189d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY No 52¢ $52 189d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than BUY Yes 5¢ $142 192d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than BUY Yes 5¢ $1 192d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than BUY Yes 5¢ $1 192d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than BUY Yes 5¢ $1 192d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than BUY Yes 5¢ $1 192d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than BUY Yes 5¢ $39 192d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than BUY Yes 5¢ $0 192d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than BUY Yes 5¢ $6 192d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than BUY Yes 5¢ $1 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.97 · official $354.97 (match) · 323 history records