Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb770…3f81 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$51 (+3%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$62
other 16% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.8% -2.5% 57% 57% -7.9%
≤30d 14 +7.8% -2.5% 57% 57% -7.9%
≤90d 14 +7.8% -2.5% 57% 57% -7.9%
all 14 +7.8% -2.5% 57% 57% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 57% -7.9%
10% -11.8% 50% -16.7%
15% -20.3% 43% -24.7%
20% -28.2% 36% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$77 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $102 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $101 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $113 +$107 +95%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $65 −$5 -7%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $106 −$104 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$44 +43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $106 +$74 +70%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $204 −$202 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $86 −$13 -15%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$43 +28%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $105 +$60 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $76 +$43 +56%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $120 −$43 -36%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$18 +17%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $96 −$94 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 4m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $220 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $113 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 31¢ $61 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 32¢ $65 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $106 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 86¢ $146 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 59¢ $102 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $44 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $7 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $14 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $41 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $22 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $30 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $152 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $73 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $60 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $0 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $66 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $3 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $100 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $21 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.63 · official $202.65 (match) · 49 history records