Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb772…fa1d other 113 markets active 16h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%35W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$18
sports 18% −$34
culture 6% −$8
world 5% −$2
politics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.3% -6.6% 41% 41% -14.2%
≤30d 35 +7.6% -2.7% 43% 43% -12.6%
≤90d 85 -31.7% -38.2% 26% 26% -25.4%
all 101 -18.6% -26.3% 35% 34% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 34% -13.3%
10% -33.4% 34% -21.6%
15% -39.8% 30% -29.1%
20% -45.7% 27% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses35 / 66
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)101 / 113
History coverage157d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 86¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal Record Broken? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 60¢ 5¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-91%)
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$11 +206%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 +$8 +164%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Truist Championship? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Truist Championship? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +155%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 05 $2 +$3 +154%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? Apr 30 $8 +$23 +288%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $11 +$9 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 15h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 15h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $5 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 27h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 59¢ $16 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 34¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 37¢ $5 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $8 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 5d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.71 · official $33.39 (match) · 258 history records