Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B7 0xb777…cea6 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$78 (+3%) realized +$47 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$75
14 days+$62
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$108
crypto 30% −$42
sports 19% +$182
politics 4% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +91.3% +73.1% 55% 50% -6.3%
≤30d 29 +63.6% +48.0% 55% 48% -7.9%
≤90d 38 +46.4% +32.4% 58% 45% -9.2%
all 38 +46.4% +32.4% 58% 45% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.4% 45% -9.2%
10% +19.8% 29% -17.9%
15% +8.2% 21% -25.9%
20% -2.4% 16% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +110% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$41 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage89d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $178 $210 +$31 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $53 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $42 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $336 +$39 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $161 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $139 +$102 +73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $322 −$183 -57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $221 +$101 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$29 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $49 +$191 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $86 −$85 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $107 +$29 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $115 +$9 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $121 +$41 +34%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $130 +$12 +9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Open: Sebastian Korda vs Martin Landaluce Mar 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 24 $8 +$11 +137%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Ser Mar 24 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 24 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 24 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.86 · official $209.86 (match) · 112 history records