Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb777…e4e0 politics 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$474 (+4%) realized −$264 · open +$738
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4,680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$452
14 days−$157
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$328
other 17% −$198
culture 8% +$182
tech 3% +$95
world 3% +$71
crypto 2% +$29
finance 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.4% -27.1% 50% 50% -32.3%
≤30d 20 -6.3% -15.2% 75% 60% -12.4%
≤90d 20 -6.3% -15.2% 75% 60% -12.4%
all 20 -6.3% -15.2% 75% 60% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 60% -12.4%
10% -23.4% 25% -20.7%
15% -30.8% 5% -28.4%
20% -37.5% 5% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$677) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$285 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$4,680
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$738
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)20 / 32
History coverage24d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Weightlifter" or "Weightlifting" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $235 +$258 +110%
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Jun 25 $332 −$330 -99%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $753 +$97 +13%
Will Trump say "MAGA" during June 24 Rally? Jun 24 $481 −$476 -99%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $677 +$21 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day Jun 19 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? Jun 18 $690 +$73 +10%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $200 +$43 +22%
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $44 +$9 +20%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $619 +$210 +34%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 15 $80 +$26 +32%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 09 $252 +$81 +32%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 08 $68 +$4 +6%
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple W Jun 08 $42 +$10 +24%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $324 +$44 +14%
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $335 −$334 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $171 −$169 -99%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 04 $751 +$155 +21%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by between 10% Jun 04 $750 +$142 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $190 1h
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? BUY No 94¢ $72 1h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? BUY No 65¢ $255 25h
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY No 85¢ $332 25h
Will Trump say "Weightlifter" or "Weightlifting" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 47¢ $235 2d
Will Trump say "MAGA" during June 24 Rally? BUY Yes 75¢ $481 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 72¢ $377 2d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more BUY No 82¢ $557 2d
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 76¢ $754 2d
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5 BUY No 78¢ $274 2d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by mor BUY No 91¢ $198 5d
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 79¢ $756 5d
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 88¢ $753 5d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election SELL No 100¢ $698 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day BUY No 89¢ $116 7d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY No 84¢ $114 8d
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? BUY No 87¢ $201 8d
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 83¢ $44 8d
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY No 82¢ $200 8d
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY No 73¢ $49 10d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $106 10d
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? BUY No 93¢ $5 11d
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? BUY No 90¢ $686 11d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 75¢ $80 11d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 97¢ $677 11d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 74¢ $619 11d
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple W BUY Yes 81¢ $41 17d
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple W BUY Yes 81¢ $0 17d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY No 75¢ $252 18d
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t BUY Yes 94¢ $68 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,680.25 · official $4,677.54 (match) · 52 history records