Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:01:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb779…ab22 sports 735 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,229 (-2%) realized −$5,085 · open +$856
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%347W / 518L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$2,291est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$17,258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$4,727
other 19% +$587
world 14% +$270
politics 7% +$219
crypto 7% +$1,507
tech 4% −$1,223
culture 1% +$290
economics 0% −$182
finance 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -70.2% -73.0% 14% 11% -42.3%
≤30d 374 -44.8% -50.1% 26% 20% -20.4%
≤90d 829 -23.8% -31.0% 40% 32% -14.1%
all 865 -23.7% -31.0% 40% 32% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.0% 32% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.6% 26% -22.3%
15% -43.6% 22% -29.8%
20% -49.2% 17% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$56 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$17,258
Realized−$5,085
Unrealized+$856
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses347 / 518
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$2,291
Open positions93
Markets (closed)865 / 735
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$315
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 93 History 865 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 45¢ 93¢ $450 $930 +$480 (+107%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 69¢ 78¢ $807 $900 +$94 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 55¢ $975 $818 −$158 (-16%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $799 $813 +$13 (+2%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $780 $715 −$65 (-8%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 52¢ 59¢ $492 $558 +$66 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 90¢ $474 $543 +$69 (+15%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 75¢ 90¢ $404 $490 +$85 (+21%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $403 $427 +$25 (+6%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 86¢ 68¢ $516 $408 −$108 (-21%)
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $372 $394 +$22 (+6%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 76¢ $325 $378 +$52 (+16%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $297 $376 +$79 (+26%)
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? No 87¢ 93¢ $348 $372 +$24 (+7%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 80¢ 95¢ $305 $363 +$58 (+19%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 63¢ 72¢ $315 $360 +$45 (+14%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 61¢ 88¢ $244 $350 +$106 (+43%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $220 $341 +$121 (+55%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 55¢ $437 $338 −$99 (-23%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 72¢ 90¢ $265 $329 +$64 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 52¢ 62¢ $270 $325 +$55 (+20%)
Will Pudgy Penguins floor price dip to 2 ETH before 2027? No 56¢ 54¢ $318 $304 −$14 (-4%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 78¢ 92¢ $234 $278 +$44 (+19%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 26¢ 44¢ $164 $274 +$110 (+67%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $260 $269 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 407 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 34 and 36 million views on day 3 Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-25? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Medal of Honor ceremony on March 2? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" or "Midnight Hammer" during Women's History Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Chiefs vs. Raiders Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Le Mans FC vs. AS Nancy-Lorraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 30+ times in Rome, GA on Februa Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will GPT win the okbet trading competition? Jun 18 $11 −$17 -166%
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union Jun 18 $13 −$4 -32%
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-14? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Lions (-2.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-19? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Jun 18 $83 −$59 -71%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-12.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-21? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Challenge" during his next YouTube video? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Gas" or "Gasoline" during Monday press conference? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 18 $21 −$32 -157%
Will Iran strike UAE in March? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 18 $68 −$80 -117%
Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by March 31? Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 32 and 36 million views on day 2 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 32 and 34 million views on day 3 Jun 18 $134 −$134 -100%
Will "United as one" be said during the World Cup Draw on December 5? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Geneva Convention" during Medal of Honor ceremony on M Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Manchester United vs. Everton: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "Trump" or "Biden" be said during the first episode of the Joe Ro Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during the Black History Month rec Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $117 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $103 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $44 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $49 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $133 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $158 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $128 2h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI SELL No 90¢ $5 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $0 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $44 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 49¢ $60 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $102 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $41 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $37 5h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 85¢ $255 5h
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat BUY Yes 83¢ $93 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $280 5h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 70¢ $71 6h
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 86¢ $259 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $58 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $6 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $9 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 7h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL Yes 7¢ $2 21h
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,258.39 · official $17,260.31 (match) · 3500 history records