Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb77b…ba52 crypto 469 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,084 (+1%) realized +$1,085 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%463W / 4L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$32
14 days+$176
30 days+$421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,032
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 98 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 300 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 467 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$522) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×53.88 per $1 lost it wins $53.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1,044
Realized+$1,085
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses463 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)467 / 469
History coverage144d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $522 $522 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $522 $522 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $522 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $523 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $207 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $207 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $261 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $522 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $783 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $520 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $520 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $936 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $937 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $182 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $830 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $830 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $518 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $518 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $518 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,554 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $466 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $466 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $789 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $789 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $507 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $514 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $514 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $514 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,021 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,017 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,528 +$32 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $509 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $507 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $507 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $507 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $507 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,014 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $497 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $498 +$23 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $497 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $497 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $994 +$21 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $494 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $494 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $523 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $522 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $523 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $522 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $207 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $207 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $522 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $522 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $261 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $261 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $520 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $520 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $520 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $520 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $416 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $416 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $120 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $182 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $182 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $519 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $519 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $311 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $311 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $519 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $519 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $518 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $518 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $518 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $518 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,043.55 · official $1,043.55 (match) · 1406 history records