Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb77c…fa98 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$132 (+13%) realized +$140 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate67%34W / 17L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$32
other 30% +$7
sports 20% +$63
politics 2% +$11
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.0% -12.3% 64% 43% -6.2%
≤30d 21 +13.9% +3.0% 67% 48% -0.0%
≤90d 28 -2.2% -11.5% 57% 43% -1.7%
all 51 +5.3% -4.7% 67% 59% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 59% +4.4%
10% -13.8% 45% -5.6%
15% -22.1% 37% -14.7%
20% -29.8% 27% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses34 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage595d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $93 +$7 +8%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 +$5 +117%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $47 +$33 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$41 -90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +48%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$16 +81%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$27 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$12 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 27 $10 +$10 +100%
Big Game: Coin Toss Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana above $245 on December 6? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Mar 26 $11 +$5 +46%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $40 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 09 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 01 $9 +$2 +24%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 31 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 31 $3 −$1 -29%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 31 $4 +$5 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 30 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 30 $47 +$9 +18%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Game Master (BO1) - ESL Challenger China Playof Jan 30 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 30 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 30 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 30 $5 +$3 +64%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Dec 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 05 $43 +$6 +15%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Nov 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $27 +$15 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 11 $1 $0 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November? Nov 11 $0 $0 +85%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in November? Nov 11 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $93 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $9 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.66 · official $213.66 (match) · 135 history records