Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:38:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb782…aa2d other 246 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+8%) realized +$61 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%114W / 121L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$46
14 days+$44
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 42% +$20
other 34% +$25
sports 20% −$4
crypto 2% −$10
economics 1% −$3
politics 1% +$2
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +5.5% -4.6% 50% 50% +19.4%
≤30d 66 -2.6% -11.9% 39% 36% +4.1%
≤90d 197 +12.8% +2.0% 50% 48% +1.5%
all 235 +6.8% -3.4% 49% 47% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 47% -1.1%
10% -12.6% 41% -10.5%
15% -21.1% 34% -19.2%
20% -28.8% 25% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses114 / 121
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)235 / 246
History coverage101d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 24? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 61¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $26 +$21 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $21 +$14 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 +$15 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +177%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 +$14 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$14 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +111%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +414%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +319%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +36%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 26h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.41 · official $50.41 (match) · 440 history records