Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb784…d061 finance 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,822 (+2%) realized +$2,743 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate77%47W / 14L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$1,833per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$263
14 days−$4,716
30 days+$2,393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 59% +$662
world 41% +$1,810
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.7% -5.3% 90% 20% -4.1%
≤30d 61 -4.3% -13.4% 77% 30% -5.6%
≤90d 61 -4.3% -13.4% 77% 30% -5.6%
all 61 -4.3% -13.4% 77% 30% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 30% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 15% -14.6%
15% -29.3% 5% -22.9%
20% -36.2% 2% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$2,303) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$1,009 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1,355
Realized+$2,743
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses47 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1,833
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? No 91¢ 100¢ $786 $860 +$73 (+9%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $433 $437 +$4 (+1%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 25? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,212 +$74 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 23? Jun 23 $6 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? Jun 23 $15 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 22? Jun 22 $392 +$40 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $667 +$108 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 22? Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1,057 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 18? Jun 18 $328 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? Jun 18 $306 +$38 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? Jun 18 $384 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? Jun 17 $188 +$10 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $1,393 −$1,375 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $625 −$624 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $2,303 −$87 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,817 +$426 +24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $3,442 −$3,309 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $559 −$325 -58%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $858 −$443 -52%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $154 +$16 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $4,284 +$2,441 +57%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $530 +$5 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,447 +$172 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $10,707 +$100 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,775 +$1,813 +48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 09 $767 +$171 +22%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,798 +$381 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? Jun 08 $180 +$16 +9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $799 +$175 +22%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $162 +$14 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3,715 +$45 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 5? Jun 05 $538 +$11 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,483 +$217 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 5? Jun 05 $46 +$1 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 5? Jun 05 $3,785 −$3,728 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,319 +$59 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 5? Jun 05 $2,650 −$2,396 -90%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,826 −$1,734 -95%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 4? Jun 04 $8,345 +$949 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,506 +$515 +34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 3? Jun 03 $974 +$129 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 3? Jun 03 $4,625 +$2,107 +46%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,536 +$466 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 2? Jun 02 $5,852 +$1,123 +19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 2? Jun 02 $958 +$48 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 2? Jun 02 $47 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $58 59m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $385 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $132 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? BUY No 87¢ $87 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? BUY No 87¢ $87 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? BUY No 71¢ $14 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? BUY No 64¢ $26 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $433 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 25? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? SELL No 26¢ $5 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? SELL No 57¢ $11 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? BUY No 53¢ $11 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? BUY No 50¢ $10 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $698 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? BUY Yes 93¢ $112 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? BUY Yes 91¢ $110 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? BUY Yes 78¢ $188 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,355.11 · official $1,355.11 (match) · 549 history records