Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb784…2c8b weather 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$385 (+8%) realized +$323 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate84%42W / 8L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$205
14 days+$248
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.7% +6.5% 91% 45% +13.6%
≤30d 25 +10.1% -0.4% 84% 36% +5.0%
≤90d 50 +9.1% -1.3% 84% 46% -3.8%
all 50 +9.1% -1.3% 84% 46% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 46% -3.8%
10% -10.7% 16% -13.0%
15% -19.3% 14% -21.4%
20% -27.3% 4% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$41 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$323
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses42 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage50d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Yes 30¢ 97¢ $28 $90 +$62 (+223%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 20 $73 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $38 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? Jun 19 $36 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$9 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $253 +$100 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $108 +$43 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $104 +$38 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $71 +$9 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $121 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $113 −$11 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$17 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 −$12 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $144 +$23 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 −$5 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $35 +$14 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 08 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 04 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5? Jun 04 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 18? May 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 16? May 16 $96 +$26 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 15? May 15 $225 +$29 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 14? May 14 $61 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 14? May 14 $33 +$29 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 13? May 13 $28 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 13? May 13 $25 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 13? May 13 $317 −$264 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 12? May 12 $288 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 12? May 11 $280 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 11? May 11 $448 +$50 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 11? May 10 $220 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 10? May 10 $202 +$24 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 10? May 10 $182 +$18 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 9? May 09 $160 +$24 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 8? May 08 $144 +$17 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 8? May 08 $252 +$26 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 7? May 07 $110 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 7? May 06 $56 +$55 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 5? May 05 $50 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 4? May 04 $45 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 3? May 03 $35 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 3? May 02 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 2? May 02 $56 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2? May 02 $32 −$5 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? BUY Yes 30¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? SELL Yes 66¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? SELL Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? SELL Yes 73¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY Yes 75¢ $42 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? SELL Yes 93¢ $31 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? SELL Yes 93¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? BUY Yes 85¢ $38 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $38 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $36 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $35 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $34 37h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $33 37h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $32 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $170 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $165 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 79¢ $167 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $73 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $68 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $35 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $35 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 75¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.45 · official $90.45 (match) · 190 history records