Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B7 0xb78a…1d69 world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$161 (+9%) realized +$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$162
other 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +11.0% +0.4% 100% 75% +0.9%
≤90d 6 +10.2% -0.3% 100% 67% +0.2%
all 6 +10.2% -0.3% 100% 67% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 67% +0.2%
10% -9.8% 0% -9.4%
15% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
20% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage38d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $200 +$17 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $600 +$74 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $200 +$25 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $200 +$13 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $200 +$22 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.63 · official $54.63 (match) · 16 history records