Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb78b…d0dc other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%22W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$3
crypto 21% +$2
tech 20% +$1
world 11% +$1
sports 8% +$1
politics 5% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 22 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 22 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$664) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$672
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses22 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage82d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $464 $464 −$0 (-0%)
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $208 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $671 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $311 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? Jun 25 $334 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $671 +$1 +0%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? Jun 16 $267 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? Jun 07 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $313 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $168 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O Jun 02 $322 $0 +0%
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 27 $72 $0 +0%
Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 27 $271 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $325 $0 +0%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 18 $667 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $666 +$1 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of April? May 01 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of April? May 01 $369 $0 +0%
Will gemini-3-flash be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? Apr 22 $664 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 10? Apr 13 $664 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $464 1h
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 100¢ $671 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $311 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $334 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $671 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $215 13d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $267 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $215 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $98 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $313 24d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $91 32d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May? BUY No 100¢ $87 32d
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O BUY No 100¢ $322 32d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $168 32d
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $72 34d
Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $271 34d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l BUY No 100¢ $325 34d
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $667 46d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $666 47d
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $296 61d
Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $369 61d
Will gemini-3-flash be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $664 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $664 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $671.66 · official $671.66 (match) · 46 history records