Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb78d…835d crypto 522 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,554 (+10%) realized +$11,394 · open +$1,160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%277W / 191L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$9,412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$1,135
14 days−$2,386
30 days−$1,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$44
other 38% +$4,908
finance 8% +$1,401
sports 3% +$1,578
world 3% −$91
politics 1% −$199
weather 1% +$111
culture 0% +$703
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.0% -24.0% 35% 30% -34.2%
≤30d 170 +2.1% -7.6% 59% 43% -11.6%
≤90d 373 -2.1% -11.4% 60% 45% -6.8%
all 468 +5.6% -4.5% 59% 46% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 46% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 37% -13.2%
15% -22.0% 30% -21.6%
20% -29.6% 23% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$108 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$9,412
Realized+$11,394
Unrealized+$1,160
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses277 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions54
Markets (closed)468 / 522
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$246
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 25¢ 61¢ $884 $2,128 +$1,244 (+141%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $1,069 $1,190 +$120 (+11%)
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,034 $1,034 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 36¢ $512 $402 −$110 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $429 $377 −$52 (-12%)
Pro Football: Will OBJ sign with a team in 2026? Yes 99¢ 65¢ $533 $350 −$183 (-34%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 80¢ 99¢ $241 $296 +$55 (+23%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 74¢ 98¢ $222 $294 +$72 (+33%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $248 $240 −$9 (-4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $219 $219 +$1 (+0%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 40¢ 84¢ $100 $211 +$111 (+110%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes 90¢ 76¢ $250 $209 −$41 (-16%)
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $157 $177 +$21 (+13%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $170 $171 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 70¢ $87 $162 +$75 (+86%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? No 24¢ 40¢ $73 $121 +$48 (+66%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $115 $113 −$2 (-2%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 22¢ $153 $112 −$40 (-26%)
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? No 49¢ 69¢ $78 $110 +$32 (+42%)
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250? No 28¢ 45¢ $63 $99 +$37 (+59%)
Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $48 $82 +$34 (+71%)
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2026 NFC West? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $86 $81 −$5 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $95 $80 −$15 (-16%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No 51¢ 50¢ $81 $79 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $313 −$35 -11%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $97 +$103 +105%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $196 −$194 -99%
Will Bath win? Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Exeter Chiefs win? Jun 13 $115 −$15 -13%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $56 +$111 +200%
Will Hurricanes win? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $49 +$101 +206%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 12 $208 +$113 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $404 +$39 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $704 −$205 -29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $785 −$32 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 10 $406 −$406 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 10 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $437 +$229 +52%
Will Bath win? Jun 07 $70 +$34 +48%
Will Leinster/Lions win? Jun 07 $274 +$60 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 02 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 02 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 02 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $323 −$323 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 02 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 02 $374 −$374 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $611 −$611 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 01 $19 +$20 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 01 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $92 +$59 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 01 $73 +$69 +94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,125 +$32 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $400 +$141 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,911 +$372 +20%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 01 $12 +$31 +250%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $374 +$26 +7%
Will Leinster win? May 31 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Montpellier win? May 31 $8 +$2 +31%
Will Toulouse win? May 31 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $34 +$15 +45%
Will Saracens win? May 31 $46 +$5 +10%
Will Northampton Saints win? May 31 $55 +$6 +10%
Will La Rochelle win? May 31 $322 +$10 +3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $507 +$436 +86%
Will Chiefs win? May 30 $31 +$21 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $115 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $54 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $37 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 72¢ $202 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $111 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $97 10h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 23h
Will Bath win? BUY Yes 75¢ $90 2d
Will Exeter Chiefs win? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 2d
Will Exeter Chiefs win? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2d
Will Exeter Chiefs win? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 2d
Will Exeter Chiefs win? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $457 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $271 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 73¢ $321 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $443 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $143 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $167 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $347 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $477 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,411.72 · official $9,411.74 (match) · 3500 history records