Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb792…1658 other 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,394 (+1%) realized +$1,392 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 122L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$1,196per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$102
other 42% −$161
sports 7% +$1,613
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$5
world 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -3.7% -12.9% 8% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 84 -1.5% -10.9% 8% 4% -8.7%
all 151 +2.0% -7.7% 19% 12% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 12% -8.9%
10% -16.5% 11% -17.6%
15% -24.6% 10% -25.5%
20% -32.0% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,594) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$9 · ×9.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized+$1,392
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,196
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $363 $365 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $4,351 −$7 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $629 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,897 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,737 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,967 −$6 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,269 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $67 +$45 +67%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,954 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,328 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,156 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,132 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,311 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 25 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,639 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $4,753 −$5 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,682 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,280 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,886 −$5 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,698 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $7,244 −$8 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $525 0m
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $525 2h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $680 7h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $682 8h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $713 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $714 26h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $518 28h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $519 30h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $744 30h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $745 32h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $732 2d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $733 3d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $360 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $361 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $648 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $649 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $553 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $554 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $525 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $526 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $768 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $769 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $661 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $662 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $620 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $621 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $661 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $662 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $363 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.71 · official $364.71 (match) · 484 history records