Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb792…c49f crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$570 (+4%) realized +$567 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate78%96W / 27L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day86.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$419
other 3% +$19
sports 1% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +4.5% -5.5% 78% 59% -6.4%
≤30d 123 +4.5% -5.5% 78% 59% -6.4%
≤90d 123 +4.5% -5.5% 78% 59% -6.4%
all 123 +4.5% -5.5% 78% 59% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 59% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 28% -15.4%
15% -22.8% 15% -23.5%
20% -30.3% 8% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$59 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$567
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses96 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage3d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day86.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 76¢ 58¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 25¢ 42¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$22 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$51 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$43 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$4 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $152 −$100 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $152 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $151 −$30 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$11 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $18 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $111 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $49 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $63 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $74 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.54 · official $30.38 · 370 history records