Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb793…2a18 other 173 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,507 (-1%) realized −$2,507 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%29W / 144L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,499per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$26
14 days−$63
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$143
other 35% +$455
sports 11% −$2,830
economics 3% −$8
culture 3% −$8
world 2% −$21
tech 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -4.7% -13.8% 8% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 110 -13.5% -21.7% 4% 1% -11.2%
all 173 -1.6% -11.0% 17% 8% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 8% -10.4%
10% -19.5% 8% -19.0%
15% -27.3% 7% -26.8%
20% -34.4% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,837) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$25 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,507
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses29 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,499
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,724 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $4,648 −$6 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $239 +$1 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,088 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $3,258 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,813 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $3,064 −$5 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,837 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,285 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,179 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $2,197 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $8,066 −$9 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,204 −$5 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,929 −$6 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,131 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,190 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,301 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $56 +$72 +129%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $5,485 −$6 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $73 −$73 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,156 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $494 +$1 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $3,841 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $2,665 −$4 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $5,974 −$6 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,832 −$4 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $4,843 −$5 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,163 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,558 −$4 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? May 19 $789 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $1,408 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $346 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $347 2h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $221 25h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $222 27h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $273 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $274 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $945 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $947 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,040 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,042 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $851 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $923 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $925 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $909 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $910 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $942 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $943 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $856 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $859 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $860 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $890 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $902 9d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $904 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,020 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,021 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $851 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $852 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 560 history records