Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb795…1a30 sports 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+1%) realized +$59 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%123W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days+$119
14 days+$122
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$57
other 5% −$3
politics 3% −$72
world 2% +$2
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +7.3% -2.9% 47% 47% -5.6%
≤30d 210 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 47% -8.8%
≤90d 247 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 47% -9.9%
all 247 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 47% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 47% -9.9%
10% -17.4% 44% -18.5%
15% -25.4% 40% -26.4%
20% -32.7% 34% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses123 / 124
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions4
Markets (closed)247 / 251
History coverage71d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: England O/U 5.5 Corners Over 60¢ 72¢ $155 $187 +$32 (+21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 83¢ 99¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 48¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-29%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 43¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $36 −$4 -10%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 27 $135 −$6 -5%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 +$5 +36%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 27 $121 +$85 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 27 $91 −$91 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $71 +$50 +71%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $49 −$48 -99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 26 $57 −$8 -14%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 26 $110 −$62 -57%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 26 $6 +$2 +34%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $14 +$11 +82%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $15 +$24 +158%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 25 $101 +$50 +50%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 25 $81 −$34 -42%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 25 $41 −$2 -6%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 25 $31 −$2 -6%
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $137 $0 -0%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Cabo Verde to win the second half? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $9 +$4 +40%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 24 $35 +$31 +86%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 24 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 −$1 -4%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 24 $61 +$39 +65%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 24 $31 +$41 +134%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $36 +$39 +109%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $18 +$2 +12%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $51 −$5 -10%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $20 +$42 +206%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To Jun 23 $36 +$37 +105%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $16 +$3 +20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $51 +$34 +68%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $41 +$35 +86%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 23 $66 −$65 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $51 −$2 -3%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $51 −$4 -9%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $71 −$7 -10%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $51 −$51 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $67 +$51 +76%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $23 +$21 +90%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $21 +$39 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 46¢ $32 1h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 52¢ $129 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $157 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $121 12h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 59¢ $49 23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Under 53¢ $49 23h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $59 28h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $8 28h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Under 56¢ $46 28h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 34¢ $20 32h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $51 33h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $57 33h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $91 33h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 66¢ $101 43h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 38¢ $15 43h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 56¢ $45 47h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 49¢ $38 47h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 40¢ $29 47h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 33¢ $31 2d
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $135 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $137 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 35¢ $41 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $20 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $61 2d
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $36 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $137 2d
Cabo Verde to win the second half? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 41¢ $31 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $3 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.58 · official $217.58 (match) · 432 history records