Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B7 0xb795…d981 sports 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$13 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%134W / 60L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$91
14 days−$34
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$5
other 18% +$7
politics 1% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -26.8% -33.8% 54% 42% -15.8%
≤30d 183 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 56% -9.0%
≤90d 194 -3.7% -12.9% 69% 54% -9.1%
all 194 -3.7% -12.9% 69% 54% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 54% -9.1%
10% -21.2% 36% -17.8%
15% -28.9% 22% -25.8%
20% -35.8% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses134 / 60
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)194 / 196
History coverage31d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 64¢ 59¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 24 $204 +$7 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $5 −$2 -48%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 24 $20 −$17 -84%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 24 $10 −$6 -58%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jun 24 $106 −$43 -41%
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys Jun 24 $5 +$1 +23%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $10 −$3 -25%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $100 +$14 +14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $110 +$6 +6%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $105 +$2 +2%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $191 +$7 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $110 +$6 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $5 +$2 +48%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $20 +$3 +13%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Halle Open (Doubles): Altmaier/Fonseca vs Doumbia/Polmans Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $10 −$4 -44%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 97¢ $79 1h
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 97¢ $120 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 32¢ $3 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 59¢ $5 3h
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro SELL Francesco Passaro $0 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Taylor Fritz 84¢ $50 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Taylor Fritz 84¢ $50 7h
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 95¢ $100 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 81¢ $5 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Taylor Fritz 84¢ $5 8h
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 84¢ $5 8h
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 82¢ $5 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $6 22h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina SELL Liudmila Samsonova 51¢ $4 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina SELL Elina Svitolina 50¢ $4 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Liudmila Samsonova 62¢ $5 24h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Luciano Darderi 59¢ $5 24h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 62¢ $5 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 94¢ $50 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 82¢ $50 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 97¢ $100 29h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 93¢ $100 31h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 88¢ $46 31h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 90¢ $151 31h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 88¢ $80 31h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 89¢ $5 32h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 87¢ $100 32h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 65¢ $5 43h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 81¢ $5 43h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.64 · official $18.64 (match) · 436 history records