Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb796…d9f6 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$272 (-12%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$66
other 9% −$179
crypto 8% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -14.1% -22.3% 62% 19% -23.9%
≤30d 21 -14.1% -22.3% 62% 19% -23.9%
≤90d 21 -14.1% -22.3% 62% 19% -23.9%
all 21 -14.1% -22.3% 62% 19% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 19% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 10% -31.1%
15% -36.5% 5% -37.8%
20% -42.8% 0% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$45 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage7d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +39%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$184 -92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 +$2 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $477 −$59 -12%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $462 +$18 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $211 +$3 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $43 +$12 +28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $198 −$37 -19%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $392 +$2 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $46 −$4 -9%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $30 −$8 -27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $40 +$6 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $4 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 53¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 49¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 31¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 26¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 23¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 22¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 42h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 42h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 42h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 42h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records