Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb797…e779 sports 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,015 (+9%) realized +$18,755 · open +$260
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%60W / 62L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$1,806per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$2,221est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,147
7 days+$20,439
14 days+$22,376
30 days+$21,786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$4,889
other 31% +$7,123
politics 10% +$1,065
crypto 4% +$7,293
world 0% −$627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +15.3% +4.3% 57% 52% +1.8%
≤30d 76 +8.6% -1.8% 51% 49% +1.0%
≤90d 108 -3.8% -12.9% 46% 44% -0.8%
all 122 +1.5% -8.2% 49% 47% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 47% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 45% -10.2%
15% -25.0% 43% -18.8%
20% -32.3% 39% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,287 vs −$931 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$2,740
Realized+$18,755
Unrealized+$260
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses60 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2,221
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage109d
Avg bet$1,806
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Panama 62¢ 68¢ $2,480 $2,740 +$260 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,019 +$375 +19%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1,026 +$1,627 +159%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $720 −$720 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $714 +$311 +44%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $8,442 −$8,442 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5,920 +$6,575 +111%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $4,114 +$3,136 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,650 −$772 -47%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2,550 +$1,426 +56%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,870 +$3,630 +62%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,598 +$1,608 +62%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $21,222 +$754 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $8,207 +$3,494 +43%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $8,560 +$1,614 +19%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $5,934 +$50 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,800 −$467 -26%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $6,020 $0 -0%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $5,313 −$5,279 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,550 −$130 -3%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $162 +$319 +197%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9,690 +$7,293 +75%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,295 +$2,139 +93%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 20 $690 −$5 -1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1,204 +$640 +53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,180 −$45 -1%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $7,713 +$7,272 +94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4,991 −$4,919 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $3,249 −$3,249 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $663 −$663 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4,840 −$4,840 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10,579 +$3,421 +32%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $2,550 +$2,450 +96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $968 −$950 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,424 −$1,795 -52%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $509 −$485 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7,085 −$4,160 -59%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,992 +$1,538 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $3,089 +$3,411 +110%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,855 −$1,839 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $406 +$410 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 +$302 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $599 +$701 +117%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $114 −$111 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $496 +$1,054 +212%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,542 +$4,258 +94%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,320 −$2,320 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $763 −$750 -98%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $480 −$480 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 62¢ $2,508 13m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $2,394 14m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,019 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $720 3h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $50 4h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $3 4h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $3 4h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $3 4h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $1 4h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $1 4h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $5 4h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $13 4h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $105 4h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $692 4h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 65¢ $153 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $135 5h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $154 7h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $560 7h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 40¢ $4,910 19h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $975 22h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $1,432 22h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $8 22h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $20 22h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $39 22h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $846 22h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $1 22h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $13 22h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,740.00 · official $2,740.00 (match) · 1634 history records