Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb79a…a203 other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 410d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$725 (+19%) realized +$705 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%20W / 50L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$11
14 days−$89
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$79
other 21% +$311
politics 21% +$650
tech 14% +$2
sports 7% −$80
culture 4% −$93
finance 2% +$24
crypto 0% −$10
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +129.9% +108.0% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 15 +10.1% -0.4% 27% 27% -24.2%
≤90d 23 +76.0% +59.3% 26% 26% -0.8%
all 70 +2.6% -7.2% 29% 29% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 29% +2.8%
10% -16.0% 29% -7.1%
15% -24.2% 27% -16.0%
20% -31.6% 20% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$29 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$764
Realized+$705
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses20 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions28
Markets (closed)70 / 98
History coverage410d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 94¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 25¢ 57¢ $50 $115 +$65 (+130%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 38¢ 100¢ $40 $104 +$64 (+159%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 43¢ $70 $57 −$13 (-18%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 69¢ 39¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 57¢ 86¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+50%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 50¢ 39¢ $25 $20 −$6 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-90%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$28 +550%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 16 $102 −$62 -61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$10 -63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $125 +$81 +65%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $15 −$5 -29%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$471 +4707%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 05 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 05 $20 +$39 +197%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $100 +$150 +150%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 02 $5 −$3 -56%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $50 +$20 +41%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$64 +64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? Feb 20 $30 +$15 +49%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $212 +$253 +120%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 09 $20 +$57 +285%
Houthi strike on Israel by September 30? Sep 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Éric Lombard be the next Prime Minister of France? Sep 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? Sep 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $100 +$68 +68%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Aug 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 05 $30 −$29 -95%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 24¢ $40 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 7d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $31 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 12d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 12d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 59¢ $102 12d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 38¢ $41 16d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 20d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 20d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 20d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 68¢ $50 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $764.50 · official $764.63 (match) · 217 history records