Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb79c…3ae5 other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$19
politics 22% −$6
sports 6% +$68
economics 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +4.6% -5.4% 13% 9% -9.4%
all 106 +4.5% -5.5% 12% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 8% -9.4%
10% -14.5% 8% -18.1%
15% -22.8% 8% -26.0%
20% -30.4% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×14.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)106 / 110
History coverage93d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 48¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $306 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $107 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $247 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $480 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 16 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $432 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 08 $251 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $231 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 03 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $500 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $252 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $237 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $482 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,162 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $432 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $410 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $258 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $264 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $417 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $448 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 23h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 26h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $8 29h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 47h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 10d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.44 · official $228.44 (match) · 335 history records